The Winchester Family Business

I often feel when I bring up the topic of ratings, I’m beating a dead horse. Probably because I track ratings daily for fun and often know when shows are in trouble and when they aren’t. Plus I’ve written about ratings enough on this site. I haven’t been raising any red flags for my favorite show, that’s for sure. Still, February is a jittery time for many, especially "Supernatural" fans. Those days of being a bubble show are still deeply etched in people’s minds and worry begins as we get closer to that almighty early renewal announcement that has come the past three seasons. In the past week though I’ve got several messages from worried “Supernatural” fans about bad ratings this past Friday. Combine that worry with the fact that “Fringe” is on Fridays now against “Supernatural,” it’s time to do an update and set minds at ease. 

February is a strange time of year. This is usually the time that ratings start to fall for all shows and all networks. I’m not sure why that’s the case. Seasonal affective disorder? Show fatigue? How about the fact that scheduling is all over the map this time of year? Who knows, but networks know it. Their expectations are lower in February and usually ratings are affecting renewal decisions at this time only for the bubble shows. 

Here’s what networks like to see in their Winter ratings. Consistency over a number of weeks. Things are going to drop off a little, but small drops are certainly far less discouraging that larger ones. Comparisons can be done with the previous year (assuming the show maintained the same time slot otherwise not) but nowadays there’s another fact. TV viewership overall for network television is declining every year. So, if the Live + Same Day DVR ratings for a show declines 10 percent over last year, but viewership in that same category overall for that network declines 15 percent, the show is ahead of the curve. “Supernatural” is having to prove itself in a timeslot that was previously held by an “America’s Next Top Model” repeat. Needless to say, it’s doing extremely well. 

18-49 demo numbers however are more important than overall viewers. This might be a staggering fact to many of you, but “Glee” actually makes a lot more money in advertising than “NCIS” and it gets half the viewers. That's because “Glee” gets a far higher rating in 18-49 and especially 18-34, which means more lucrative advertising contracts. It’s not a fair system, but that’s the way things are. 

This is an important point for that's what affects “Supernatural” at The CW. Overall ratings doesn’t matter. It hasn’t for years. If Supernatural one week gets a 1.0 in the demo and 2 million viewers and the next week gets 1.0 in the demo and 2.5 million viewers, the network doesn’t care. That’s considered no change. They make their money off that 1.0, not that 2.5 million. “Gossip Girl” actually makes more money in advertising than “Supernatural” despite having much lower overall ratings. Why? They are big in 18-34 females by a lot. Normally that show gets a 2.0 or better in 18-34 women. “Supernatural” averages around a 1.0. However, “Supernatural” usually gets 1.0 or 1.1 in 18-49 (on a Friday where there is less advertising competition) while “Gossip Girl” gets around a 0.8 or 0.9. So it’s up to The CW to capitalize on that difference when selling advertising. It’s amazing how they don’t. Honest, “Supernatural” has the cheapest advertising rates on the schedule. They have never made money for The CW in advertising vs. the license fee cost. Like I said, it’s a bizarre system.

Anyway, I’m straying a bit and adding worry where it’s not there. You see, “Supernatural” has other benefits for The CW. There’s a big reason why “Fringe” is in deep trouble and “Supernatural” is not. Both are made by Warner Brothers, that’s why. Still not seeing it? It’s their networks. The CW is half owned by Warner Brothers. By keeping “Supernatural” on the schedule on their own network Warner Brothers continues to make a lot of money in syndication, DVDs, iTunes, etc. “Supernatural” believe it or not does far better than most shows in DVD sales, including the big names. Warner Brothers makes money right now doing the same thing for “Fringe” but Fox sees none of that. All Fox sees is a show with rapidly declining viewership, that’s very heavy on non-lucrative DVR ratings and no potential for those “Glee” and “American Idol” advertising dollars. What’s their incentive to keep the show going so a third party company can make money off it? Especially when this is a strong network with a wealth of programming to use as an alternative.  Warner Brothers could accept a reduced license fee but at what point does that reduced fee make the show no longer cost effective? “Fringe” fans have a big right to worry right now. 

If there’s any concern right now, it’s the fact that The CW ratings lately have been in a freefall. Things have gotten very bad in the last few weeks and there have been few bright spots all winter, especially since the network took most of January off. All of their shows have declined but out of all of them, Friday nights is holding the strongest. Just look at the ratings the last couple of weeks. A key to a show’s renewal is how it holds up against THEIR OWN NETWORK's shows, not other networks. “Supernatural's” ratings in the 18-49 demo for The CW is tied for 2^nd with “Smallville,” a show that is ending this season. The CW cannot afford to lose both shows in the same year because they don't have new programs waiting in their vault (or money to produce them).  One does have to wonder how low The CW owners are willing to let ratings go before ending this network.  I think there's still some room and a few years left, but man, these numbers are getting bad.  

The Vampire Diaries - 2.79 million viewers, 1.3 18-49, 1.5 18-34, 2.0 18-34 women
(previous week) 3.22 million viewers, 1.5 18-49, 1.8 18-34, 2.4 18-34 women

Nikita – 1.89 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.7 18-34, 1.0 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.38 million viewers, 0.9 18-49. 0.8 18-34, 1.0 18-34 women

One Tree Hill – 1.60 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.9 18-34, 1.3 18-34 women
(previous week – special episode) 2.42 million viewers, 1.2 18-49, 1.6 18-34, 2.4 18-34 women

Hellcats – 1.72 million viewers, 0.7 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 1.2 18-34 women
(previous week) 1.80 million viewers, 0.8 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.4 18-34 women

90210 (last night) – 1.38 million viewers, 0.7 18-49
(previous week) - 1.75 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 1.0 18-34, 1.5 18-34 women

Gossip Girl (last night) – 1.31 million viewers, 0.7 18-49
(previous week) - 1.62 million viewers, 0.8 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.8 18-34 women

Friday night: 

Smallville – 2.34 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 0.6 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.37 million viewers, 1.0 18-49, 0.9 18-34, 0.8 18-34 women

Supernatural – 1.97 million viewers, 0.9 18-49, 0.8 18-34, 0.8 18-34 women
(previous week) 2.25 million viewers, 1.0 18-49, 1.1 18-34, 1.3 18-34 women

Like I mentioned earlier though, everyone is in a freefall (NBC and ABC are looking particularly bad).  Look at these "Fringe" numbers for the last 3 weeks. These numbers are cause for alarm, especially since the rest of their network is performing stronger.   

(1/28) 4.53 million viewers 1.9 18-49
(2/4) 4.25 million viewers 1.6 18-49
(2/11) 3.73 million viewers 1.4 18-49

What’s my point? Relax “Supernatural” fans.  The show isn’t doing any worse than the trend and it’s still a top performer for its network and studio. Chances are the ratings will fall worse as the spring hits. That’s the norm for all networks though this time of year and especially this year. No one has reason to worry. Hopefully by that time an early renewal will be official.